Effect of scale and spatial heterogeneity on fire-interval distributions

Abstract

The distribution of forest-fire intervals has been characterized by fitting statistical distributions, such as that of Weibull. The parameters of fitted distributions can then be used to compare fire regimes. Fire-interval distributions for the 187-year presettlement fire history record in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area, Minnesota, were analyzed using reconstructed "fire-year" maps. Distributions were determined for sampling units at five spatial scales, from about 25 000 to 400 000 ha. Fire-interval distributions varied from positively to negatively skewed, but for most units the Weibull distribution fit significantly. The distributions varied spatially, and cluster analysis suggested that three fire regions, each containing a relatively homogeneous fire regime, could be identified. The sources of this spatial variation are unknown. There was less variation between scales within a fire region than between fire regions. This contrasts with a previous finding, using the same fire-history data, that scale substantially affects observed landscape age-class distribution. This disparity arises because landscape age-class distributions may fluctuate even if fire-interval distributions do not fluctuate. Reconstruction of fire-interval distributions requires historical data; landscape age-class distributions at an instant in time are insufficient.