Forest and economic impacts of alternative management strategies on Crown land in New Brunswick

Abstract

This study evaluated the long-run economic impacts of four alternative forest management strategies on New Brunswick’s Crown land forests: two volume-based strategies focused on business as usual (BAU) and intensive (INT) timber volume production and two value-based strategies focused on forest manufacturing sector contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) and government surplus (GOV). These were defined within an extended wood supply model that incorporated both economic indicators (logging sector profit, government surplus, forest manufacturing sector shipments, and forest manufacturing sector GDP) and timber supply indicators (harvest levels, operable growing stock, and products). Results showed that a number of indicator trade-offs emerge under each strategy. For instance, the GOV strategy produced the highest present value government surplus value (at $1.2 billion, exceeding INT, BAU, and GDP strategies by $352 million, $302 million, and $169 million, respectively) and logging sector profit (at $2.4 billion, exceeding BAU, INT, and GDP strategies by $4 million, $11 million, and $8 million, respectively) over an 80 year planning horizon. However, this strategy also produced the lowest forest manufacturing sector contribution to GDP (at $12.8 billion, below the GDP, INT, and BAU strategies by $4.3 billion, $1.6 billion, and $1.4 billion, respectively) and the lowest annual softwood volume harvest, operable growing stock, and silvicultural investment of all strategies. Thus, although these findings emphasize that value-based strategies can produce some favourable economic outcomes, a number of trade-offs emerge that need to be further investigated before such strategies can be supported.