Simulation of risk of progressive slope failure

Abstract

Understanding of progressive failure of slopes is of immense interest to geotechnical engineers and others concerned with the occurrence of landslides. One important aspect of research is the development of relevant analytical and numerical techniques. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches can be used to study the development of progressive failure, provided valid geomechanics models form the basis of such studies. In this paper the risk of failure is simulated within a probabilistic framework. Of particular interest is the increase in the probability of failure, as overstress (and consequent localized failure) is considered to have actually occurred over an increasing proportion of a slip surface within the slope. The perception or interpretation of local failure is often based on observational data from surface measurements and subsurface instrumentation. Knowledge of spatial progression of failure may similarly be based on indirect and direct evidence. In the proposed simulation process the peak and residual shear strength of the slope material are regarded as one-dimensional random fields, and therefore spatial variability of each parameter is taken into consideration. Key words : analysis, clays, failure, shear strength, slopes, stability, landslides, probabilistic analysis, reliability analysis, progressive failure, slip surfaces, risk simulation, statistical analysis.