A Markov Chain Approach to the Prediction of Diameter Distributions in Uneven-aged Forest Stands

Abstract

A simple stochastic model to predict future diameter distributions, number of survivor trees, number of mortality trees, and number of harvested trees is developed from conventional continuous forest inventory data over two measurement periods. The length of the prediction period is limited to multiples of the remeasurement period. Data used to construct the model and test its predictive ability came from 19 consecutive years of C.F.I, measurements collected in Washington County, Wisconsin. Results indicate that number of survivor trees can be predicted with very good accuracy; predictions of diameter distributions, number of mortality trees, and number of harvested trees are less accurate.