Development of a small-scale approach to assess sea ice change using weekly ice charts, with application to Anguniaqvia Niqiqyuam Marine Protected Area

Abstract

Broad-scale changes in sea ice have been documented across the Arctic; however, less is known about sea ice decline at smaller scales, focused at high-priority areas such as marine protected areas (MPAs) or places identified as important by Indigenous Peoples. Here, we develop a small-scale application of assessing sea ice change using weekly sea ice charts and apply that to assess sea ice change in Anguniaqvia Niqiqyuam MPA (ANMPA) from 1980 to 2019. Over that 40-year period, sea ice coverage in ANMPA decreased and open water increased by approximately a month (31.6 days at 50% ice; 33.8 days at 20% ice remaining during break-up and 80% ice formed during freeze-up). Break-up has gone from occurring in mid- or late July to occurring in late June or early July. Freeze-up has changed from occurring in mid-October to occurring in early November. As sea ice decline may have dramatic impacts for the ecosystem and consequences for the people that rely on this important area, we highlight the need to better understand the impacts of sea ice decline in small-scale priority places and also contribute to the development of community-scale approaches to increase the accessibility of assessing change.