Worldwide cotton production and trade during COVID-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis for a three-year observation

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a significant impact on agriculture. Due to its importance in world trade and human life, the effects of the pandemic on the cotton economy were evaluated by using the data of important organizations such as the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the World Trade Organization, and International Cotton Advisory Committee in this study. With the Chow test, which measures of structural breaks, the effects of COVID-19 on cotton production and trade were examined. According to the Chow test results, the pandemic had no significant effect on cotton production, exports and imports in the People’s Republic of China and Türkiye, while being highly influential on cotton production and exports in the U.S. and Brazil. Distinctively, in Pakistan, it had a significant impact on cotton production and import. It was observed that although the demand, trade and prices for cotton were descended, the cotton prices started to recover with the increase in demand in the third quarter of 2020. In June 2022, the highest peak in cotton prices was observed. As a conclusion, it is shown that cotton production and trade during the pandemic were affected in all countries except People’s Republic of China and Türkiye. However, the marks of the effects of factors such as decreasing stocks, uncertainties in national economies, high inflation and increase in production costs on the cotton economy will be better understood in the coming years.