Climatic projections vs. grapevine phenology: a regional case study

Abstract

From the middle of the 20th century, the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced an increase in temperatures during the growing season. Even if, through technological processes, this issue has been seen as an improvement, recent changes of climatic factors (mainly temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall) show a worrying trend. This study reveals the impacts of climate change in one of the oldest and most important vineyards in Eastern Europe (Odobești vineyard in Romania) on the quality of grapes. The varieties taken into study are ‘Șarbă, Băbească gri’ and ‘Fetească regală’, the first two being considered new created cultivars, while the latter is found on the largest areas of viticultural use. Grapevine phenology and composition were analysed according to literature and standard OIV regulations. Climatic data was gathered, throughout 50 years (1971-2021), by using a weather station of the Odobești Viticulture and Wine-making Research Development Station. A climatic assessment using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was achieved, focusing on two SSPs (SSP1-1.9 and SSP5-8.5). The climatic predictions show that for the analysed region, phenophases will change due to a temperature increase of over 1.5 oC, leading to an acceleration of 15 (SSP1-1.9) or 24 days (SSP5-8.5) in the case of grape maturation. The hastening of the yearly vine life cycle is correlated to a wide range of undesirable effects, among which an unequilibrated physical-chemical composition of fruits for wine production is considered a sore point in wine sector economy.