Exploring the Influence of Cumulative Ecological Risk on Belief in Fake News: A Longitudinal Study

Abstract

Objectives: The dangers to society and individual persons of believing fake news are becoming more apparent, and it is increasingly important to explore the factors that influence believing fake news. Due to persons developing and having a unique consciousness, personality, and set of behaviors across interconnected ecological risks, we aimed to evaluate the relationship between the cumulative effects of multiple ecological risks and believing fake news. Methods: We conducted a survey over 2 time periods at 4 public universities in Beijing, China. We used cluster sampling and obtained 406 valid samples for each of the 2 time periods. We constructed a reflective formative second-order model using least partial squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) for data analysis and analysed the model type through quadratic term effects. Results: First, there was a bidirectional impact between cumulative ecological risk and believing fake news, ie, not only did it show the importance of the environment in which individuals find themselves in shaping their beliefs about fake news, but it also demonstrated the dangers of fake news; second, cognitive bias mediates the relationship between cumulative ecological risk and believing in fake news, demonstrating the mechanism between cumulative ecological risk and believing in fake news; and third, the cumulative effect of ecological risk affects believing fake news following an exacerbation model. Conclusions: The tendency towards believing in fake news grows exponentially as a person experiences multiple risks from family, school, and peers. This study provides both theoretical and practical knowledge to combat fake news effectively.