Methods for selecting priority military technologies: an empirical analysis

Abstract

The national strategies of developed countries to achieve strategic requirements and to guarantee national security provide for the modernization of modern armed forces based on innovative technologies. An important task is the definition of priority / critical technologies in the military sphere and methods for their selection. For this, the authors conducted a study of world and domestic experience and scientific publications on methods of choosing priority military technologies. Based on the results of the research, it was concluded that various methods are used for the selection of critical technologies, but mainly on the basis of Foresight, as a complex method, using the method of expert surveys or expert assessments. Additional methods are scientometric, patent analyzes and analysis of official forecasts. It is noted that there is no single set of methods for conducting Foresight, therefore appropriate combinations of methods are used for a specific project and opportunity. For the selection of priority military technologies, a simplified comprehensive approach without significant human and financial resources is proposed — a combination of scientometric and patent analyzes together with the analysis of official forecast documents.