Trend Analysis of Red Chili Price-Formation Models

Abstract

Red chili’s characteristic flavor has been a popular element in Indonesian cuisine. A large and continuous demand for red chili is inconsistent with production volumes, causing frequent and extreme price fluctuations throughout the year. This study explores the changing trends in red chili prices to identify the influencing factors. The study was conducted in the Sleman district of Yogyakarta, Indonesia. Time-series datasets of monthly production rates and prices of chili for 3 years were subject to multiple linear regression analysis. The study found a rising trend in prices in the Sleman Regency from January 2014 to December 2016. The factors significantly influencing the red chili prices was the price of cayenne pepper. The production cost of chili, the price of tomatoes, and the price of chili for the previous 2 months had only partial and nonsignificant effects. The timing of great Muslim celebrations, such as Eid Al-Fitr and Eid Al-Adha had no significant effect on the price of red chili. However, Christmas and New Year events were associated with higher prices.