Improved Model for Predicting the Productivity of Multi-Fractured Shale Wells. TMS and EFS Field Data as Case Studies

Abstract

Abstract Multi-fractured horizontal wells have been an admirable completion technique for unconventional resources such as in Tuscaloosa Marine shale (TMS) and Eagle Ford Shale (EFS) plays located in the United States. Studies have shown that the productivity of multi-fractured wells of these two shale plays are majorly based on the fracture conductivity, which may be dependent on the type of the geometrical shape of the fractures connecting the fluid to the well. A reliable model is desirable to the operator to accurately capture the productivity of multi-fractured shale wells. Several mathematical models have been adopted with various assumptions that include simple slot geometry for fracture shape in the derivation of production rate models. These assumptions significantly simplify the existing model's applications but limit the efficiency of the models to accurately predict the fluid production rate. Failure to utilize an elliptical fracture shape and a correct drive mechanism-based model for analyzing flow rate have been considered as a vital reason for the disparity between the calculated results by the past investigators and the exact values obtained from TMS and EFS field measurements. In this study, an elliptical model based on the fracture geometry has been derived to analyze the productivity of multi-fractured shale wells considering the accurate drive mechanism for the shale play. The model validation has been achieved using field data from the Tuscaloosa Marine shale (TMS) and the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS) plays. The results generated from the newly improved model resulted in more accurate outcomes when compared with results presented by Yang and Guo (2019) and Guo and Schechter (1997); all these authors assumed the cross-sectional area of the induced fractures as being a slot showed nonconformity using real life values from the Tuscaloosa Marine shale (TMS) and the Eagle Ford Shale (EFS) plays as benchmarks. The newly improved model reduces the prediction percentage error to 0.55% and 0.43% compared to the percentage error reported by Yang and Guo (2019) as 9.1% and 3.5% and by Guo and Schechter (1997) respectively as 29.7% and 47.2 % using the actual oilfield results as their benchmark. The accurate prediction of the long-term productivity of multi-fractured oil shale depends on the ability to determine fracture geometry and the drive mechanisms that dominantly control flow in the shale play considered. Sample calculations of flow rate of the two fields considered and the controllable parameters influencing the flow rate have also been identified. The study would serve as a tool for accurate assessment of flow rate in multi-fractured wells of shale plays and analyzes its performance.