The Potential CEA/CCER Market Value for Natural Gas+ System: An Assessment Using the Logistic Growth and Technology Transfer Model

Abstract

Abstract China has committed to achieving carbon peak and neutrality targets, and ETS serves as a major and innovative policy instrument, which consists of both Chinese Emission Allowances (CEAs) and Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER). Considering the appeal for restarting CCER market, this paper proposes the "Natural Gas+" CEA and CCER techno-economics system and establishes the potential market value evaluation model for corresponding CEA and CCER. By exploring the combination scenarios among revised carbon emission, Natural Gas consumption, market shares of different phases’ technologies and carbon prices, the reasonable potential market value range of the "Natural Gas+" system for CEA and CCER are obtained. The potential market value of CCER is rising year by year with range of 669.2~1367.6 billion yuan in 2050, displaying a median value of 1031.1 billion yuan without outlier. Nevertheless, the CEA market value will reach peak in 2048 with range of 71.5~162.1 billion yuan, performing extremely large outliers from 2030. The results could quantitatively support the policy recommendations for restarting the CCER market.