Affiliation:
1. U. of Southern California
2. University of Southern California
Abstract
Abstract
The global drivers that determine the Earth's climate are:solar radiation as a dominant energy supplier to the earth,the Earth's out gassing as a major supplier of gasses to the hydrosphere and atmosphere, and,possibly microbial activities generating and consuming atmospheric gases at the interface of lithosphere and atmosphere.
The authors provide quantitative estimates of the scope and extent of their effects on the Earth's climate. Comparison of these estimates with the corresponding anthropogenic effects shows that the human-induced climatic changes are negligible with respect to global forces of nature. One should not ignore the fact that peaks in solar irradiation precede peaks in CO2 concentration. Using the adiabatic model developed by the famous Russian Scientist, Dr. O.G. Sorokhtin, the authors show that the increase in CO2 concentration in atmosphere will result in cooling rather than warming. Thus, the attempts to alter the global climatic changes (and drastic measures prescribed by the Kyoto protocol) have to be abandoned as meaningless and harmful.
Introduction
Understanding and evaluation of the global forces of nature driving the Earth's climate is crucial for establishing adequate relationship between people and nature and for developing and implementing a sound course of actions aimed at survival and welfare of human race. The latter is especially important in the light of present-day broad public debates on causes and ways of mitigation of current global atmospheric warming.
The traditional theory of global warming assumes that release of carbon dioxide into atmosphere (partially as a result of utilization of fossil fuels) leads to an increase in atmospheric temperature because the molecules of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) absorb the infrared radiation from the Earth's surface. This statement is based on the Arrhenius hypothesis (Arrhenius, 1886) which was never verified.
After the Kyoto Protocol (solely based on the Arrhenius hypothesis) had been introduced in 1997, many scientists around the world criticized its provisions (that imposed drastic restrictions on anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission, especially in developed countries) as meaningless and catastrophic. Logical and quantitative comparison analyses presented in the publications of Robinson et al. (1998), Soon et al. (2001), Bluemle et al. (2001), Baliunas (2002), Sorokhtin (2001), Sorokhtin and Ushakov (2002), Gerhard (2004), and Khilyuk and Chilingar (2003, 2004, 2006) proved that the theory of currently observed global atmospheric warming as a result of increasing anthropogenic carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gasses) emission is a myth. The estimates of the effect of anthropogenic influence on the Earth's climates show that even in the case of doubling of the present anthropogenic CO2 emission the corresponding effect on the average surface temperature would not exceed 0.01 K (Khilyuk and Chilingar, 2003; 2004). Moreover, as we are going to show further, the release of large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere results in its cooling rather than warming.
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