Energy 360: Invited Perspective: The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

Abstract

President's column Questions posed by 2015 SPE President Helge Hove Haldorsen Answers provided by Theodore W. Pirog, Energy Advisor, Corporate Strategic Planning, Exxon Mobil Corporation and Robert Gardner, Manager, Economics and Energy Division, Corporate Strategic Planning, Exxon Mobil Corporation ExxonMobil’s Long-term Global View of Energy Demand and Supply Every year, a core team in ExxonMobil produces the acclaimed The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040. Based on historical data, current developments, trends, and assumptions about the future (e.g., how energy efficiencies will improve, the number of cars on the road going forward), the ExxonMobil team projects demand and supply for all energy sources, including fossil fuels and renewables, and the resulting global energy mix. For petroleum engineers, the outlook for global oil and gas demand is of particular interest. Are we in a sunset industry or not? I sat down with ExxonMobil’s Rob Gardner and Ted Pirog to discuss a number of key issues that SPE members are keenly interested in. Their very interesting perspectives are presented below. You have predicted the global energy future for quite some time. In hindsight, how do old predictions compare with actuals? For example, are the predictions made in 2000 for 2014 spot on? ExxonMobil has been developing The Outlook for more than six decades, so we have a lot of experience on how our predictions compare. Over the past 15 years, we have seen numerous events that have dramatically changed energy supply and demand. For example, the surge in China’s economy, a global economic recession, the development of unconventional oil and gas, and the devastating tsunami in Japan with its ripple effect on nuclear power policies. To illustrate how The Outlook has held up over the past 15 years, our forecasts since 2000 for global energy in 2010 ran fairly consistently around 500 quadrillion Btu, averaging about 510 quads, or about 3% below 2010 actual results. Note that historical results are lagging and often restated, so we only have the benefit of the final data for 2010 as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA).