Risk Evaluation of Investment Decision During Low Oil Prices

Abstract

Abstract Profitability of investment projects for oil fields development is dropping drastically in the period of low oil prices especially if production drilling is in progress (so called "green fields"). Decision that is usually made in order to keep a positive annual profit during such period often leads to drilling suspension as the most capital-intensive process. Influence assessment of the investment project indicators in terms of fluctuating oil prices and long period of time has not been extended yet. The analysis of factors affecting the oil price and its trend building are brought in the paper. The evaluation of the investment project on the production drilling in the low oil price period is performed in two scenarios: high oil price volatility trend and current price. It was shown that in order to avoid loses in short term period the company and the government miss the benefits in the long term perspective. The case study is based on the 2008 economic crises. The methodology of project estimation by using high oil price volatility trend within its range of uncertainty is suggested in the paper.