Production Forecasting with the Interwell Interference by Integrating Graph Convolutional and Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network

Abstract

Summary Accurate production forecasting is an essential task and accompanies the entire process of reservoir development. With the limitation of prediction principles and processes, the traditional approaches are difficult to make rapid predictions. With the development of artificial intelligence, the data-driven model provides an alternative approach for production forecasting. To fully take the impact of interwell interference on production into account, this paper proposes a deep learning-based hybrid model (GCN-LSTM), where graph convolutional network (GCN) is used to capture complicated spatial patterns between each well, and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network is adopted to extract intricate temporal correlations from historical production data. To implement the proposed model more efficiently, two data preprocessing procedures are performed: Outliers in the data set are removed by using a box plot visualization, and measurement noise is reduced by a wavelet transform. The robustness and applicability of the proposed model are evaluated in two scenarios of different data types with the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results show that the proposed model can effectively capture spatial and temporal correlations to make a rapid and accurate oil production forecast.