European agriculture under immigration effects: New empirical evidence

Abstract

European agriculture is widely shaped under the compelling effects of international migration, both economic (labour) immigration and the refugee crisis. This complex endeavour could lead to significant spillover effects also upon the agricultural sectors in neighbouring locations, with different overall economic performances for migrant receiving countries. The research is thus set to assess the outcomes of the European agriculture under the impact of economic and humanitarian migration, focusing on the results achieved by ten EU Member States (most targeted by migrants), during 2000–2016. A balanced panel comprising a complex set of indicators was configured in order to provide accurate credentials for the methodological endeavour that consists of spatial analysis and structural equation modelling (SEM). Estimations show that the agricultural sector will be mainly shaped by economic immigration and less by the humanitarian flows. Major effects are induced through the value added by the agricultural sector, increases in exports of basic foods and agricultural raw materials (spatial analysis). However, a fail to properly manage the EU labour mobility for the following years could lead to a negative downturn on agricultural productivity (SEM).