Perbandingan Metode Prediksi untuk Nilai Jual USD: Holt-Winters, Holt's, dan Single Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

In the ever-changing landscape of the global economy, the role of the United States Dollar (USD) as the backbone of the international financial system significantly influences market stability and dynamics. The close correlation between fluctuations in the USD exchange rate and internal and external factors demands effective prediction methods to understand and manage associated risks. This study aims to compare the performance of three main prediction methods: Single Exponential Smoothing (SES), Holt's Method, and Holt-Winters Method, in forecasting USD exchange rates. Utilizing historical data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and testing under three training data distribution scenarios (45%, 55%, and 75%), this research provides in-depth findings on the strengths and weaknesses of each prediction method. Performance evaluations include the time required, Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), R-Squared, and correlation for the implementation of each method. If averaged, the results are as follows for SES, Holt’s, and Holt’s Winter, respectively: SES (1.58; 284.20; 68,768.26; 440.07; 0.03; -2.12; Nan), Holt’s (1.39; 890.23; 426,377.44; 1,043.28; 0.06; -24.28; -0.66), and Holt’s Winter (1.20; 997.45; 513,657.58; 1,168.00; 0.07; -30.62; -1.55). Overall, this indicates that the Holt-Winters Method stands out with significant performance, especially in scenarios with larger training data distributions, with a low R-Squared value (-4.618) and satisfactory correlation (0.417). Holt's Method also shows improved accuracy, while Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) offers time efficiency, albeit with limitations in explaining data variations. In conclusion, this research provides valuable guidance for business stakeholders, investors, and policymakers in selecting prediction methods suitable for their data characteristics and analysis goals, with the potential for a positive impact on business strategies, competitiveness, and risk management amid the uncertainty of USD exchange rate fluctuations.