WHY DID RUSSIA INVADE UKRAINE? PLAUSIBLE THEORETICAL EXPLANATIONS

Abstract

This paper examines three major theoretical frameworks to explain Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine. It is argued that although the war caught many by surprise, it can still be explained by at least several International Relations theories. President Putin’s decision may be erroneous but it should be treated as rational. The purpose of this research is to suggest theoretical frameworks suitable for understanding and evaluating the key foreign policy and security decisions taken by the current Russian leadership. It is assumed that the moves and choices taken by the Kremlin, in particular on the eve of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, resulted from the way decision-makers had perceived the threats and options of the time. It is also assumed that International Relations as a scientific discipline has relevant explanations and frameworks for dealing even with such seemingly irrational decisions like the one taken before the invasion. Political leaders are not going mad; they rather act within specific environments framed by available information and some basic theoretical assumptions. This article focuses on examining Russia’s invasion of Ukraine through the lenses of security dilemma, rational decision-making and power transition process. The author argues that each of these approaches can provide a coherent explanation of a strategic logic behind the decision to wage war. Moreover, by using each of these instruments it may be possible to assess Russia’s foreign and security policy beyond its Ukrainian direction, and also in a retrospect. An interstate war in a modern world is assumed to bear extremely high costs and generate high risks. Because of that, wars are so rare. But this does not imply that wars are impossible. At different levels and under certain conditions, launching a war may still seem to be the best course of action, in particular for revisionist states, even if it a choice between the bad and the worst.