Space-time changes in the initial phase of modern climate warming

Abstract

The initial phase of a temperature growth in different parts of the Earth has been examined. It is found that climate warming in the continental areas began 6–8 years earlier than in the oceanic areas. Climate warming in the sub-polar cyclonic circulation area in the North Atlantic has been started only after the beginning of the positive quasi-30-year phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), i. e. since 2000s. On the basis of the Singular Spectrum Analysis of the air temperature time series the continental areas are found, in which summer air temperature changes are synchronous with AMO on a decadal scale. In those regions, climate warming began with a 10–15 year lag in comparison to other continental areas. The highest level of statistical significance of the correlation between quasi-60-year AMO components and summer air temperatures is observed in Central and Eastern Europe (35–60° N, 10–45° E). This oscillation explains the decadal summer temperature changes within the range of ±(0.5–0.6) °C in Belarus. Climate warming intensifies in summer during the ascending AMO segment, while during the descending segment, which has started since around 2010, the decrease in the rate of growth of summer temperatures should be expected.