Estimation of the anthropogenic aerosol emission effect on the rate of summer warming in Europe

Abstract

A relationship between aerosol air pollutions and summer air temperatures in Europe was studied. High correlation coefficients between the latitudinal distributions of the zone-averaged trends of the mentioned parameters were found. The potential effects of decrease in the aerosol emission on the cloud optical depth, in the air temperature, and the amount of precipitation in the territory of Europe were estimated on the basis of the obtained regression equations. It was shown that due to the aerosol emission decrease, the average summer temperature in Europe in 2000–2020 could increase by 0.53 °С, which is ~73 % of total summer warming in the region. The empirical estimates obtained in the work were confirmed by the satellite observation data and the numerical calculations of changes in radiation balance components at the top of the atmosphere. It was shown that the radiation emission decrease in the territory of Europe could increase the average radiation balance in Europe in summer months by 2.27 W/m², which is ~65 % of its total change. The increase in the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere during the same period contributed much less to the observed change in the radiation balance (17.5 %), which supports the hypothesis about the dominant role of aerosols in summer warming in Europe.