Determining the Biocomfort Zones in Near Future in Antalya Province Depending on the Global Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Climate is a factor that affects the entire life of humans such as physiological development and characteristics, housing and house structures, food and cloth selections, and distribution on land. It is projected that global climate change would cause important changes in climate parameters in near future and affect the lives of all organisms on the earth directly or indirectly. It is estimated that these changes would cause significant changes in biocomfort zones. Thus, it is important to determine the biocomfort zones depending on the climate change scenarios and to use them in urban planning studies. In this study, it was aimed to determine the change in bioclimatic comfort zones in Antalya depending on the projected climate change scenarios. Within the scope of this study, considering the SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, that is the 6th assessment report of IPCC, it was aimed to determine the current status and possible changes in biocomfort zones in Antalya in years 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100. The results showed that the comfort zones in Antalya will generally shift from cold to hot towards the year 2100, that this shift will be at important level, and that the highest level of increase will be seen in southern regions with high population density and intense touristic activities.