SPATIAL PATTERNS AND DRIVERS IN THE EVOLUTION OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN ROMANIA (MARCH 2020-JUNE 2021)

Abstract

The manifestation of the Covid-19 pandemic raised great interest due to the speed with which it spread globally and by outlining specific diffusion patterns. Romania faced off early on the rise in the number of infections, initially, as in other European countries, extremely localized but later expanded nationwide. The analysis of the available information regarding the evolution of the number of infections and deaths caused, over a sufficiently extended period (March 2020-June 2021) allowed the identification of several spatial patterns. Their regional coherence indicates a series of correlations with socio-economic factors, validated by PCA (principal component analysis). The importance of economic development, in connection with the degree of urbanization, employment and labour mobility or population density thus explains the incidence of the number of cases at a level higher than the national average. In the case of death caused by Covid-19, the quality of the health infrastructure played an important role, the counties with a higher level of endowment being less affected. At the same time, the share of the elderly population, in association with the less populated rural area, was not positively correlated with the number of cases or deaths. Lower population interaction, weaker exposure to international mobility has created the premises for a specific pattern of evolution in these areas.