The Republic of Korea Between China and the United States in the Face of Confrontation Over Taiwan

Abstract

The article gives a tentative analysis of factors impacting the domestic and foreign policy of the Republic of Korea amid the growing confrontation between the “global West” spearheaded by the U.S. and the “global East” led by Russia and China. While the conflict between Washington and Beijing is being escalated, the South Korean leadership is likely to find itself in a precarious situation where it has to make a choice between its main economic partner and theideological overlord in terms of value orientation and security . Understanding the upcoming political course of Seoul, especially in light of the conflict over Taiwan, is of great scientific value and is important for applied international relations studies. Based on the analysis of the main trends of global turbulence and regional security, the authors propose a scenario prognosis developed on the basis of situational analysis and author’s modeling techniques , which would include both the general trends of the country’s foreign policy and the level of potential involvement of South Korea into a probable conflict between the U.S. and China in the Taiwan Strait. It is also worth noting that the most evident outcome will be the preserved alliance with Washington which is closer to South Korea when it comes to its social and political values and a gradual deterioration in relations with China, the speed of which may vary. However, the authors conclude by saying that Seoul will go to great lengths to postpone this uneasy choice and will try to distance itself from direct participation in a military conflict.