The Effect of Population Ageing on Heating Energy Demand on National Level: A Case Study of Slovenia

Abstract

Residential energy demands are expected to change significantly in the future with increasing electrification, energy efficiency, and improved comfort as well as climate change. While many studies have been performed into how the aforementioned influential factors could affect the energy needs of the forthcoming generations, far less are present for how population aging affects the future heating demand. The latter is particularly relevant for Europe and Slovenia as declining fertility rates and lengthening life spans give rise to the increasing ratio of the elderly. In this paper, the future residential space and water heating energy demands of the aging society in Slovenia, using a sample of geographically dispersed nursing homes as a proxy, are estimated. The results are compared against the latest EU reference scenario until 2050, whereby the adjusted estimates differ by up to 9.6 %. Thus, the study highlights the need for energy policy to be further refined and redefined to link the energy performance requirements of buildings to specific consumption characteristics of the elderly.