Affiliation:
1. Federal Research and Clinical Center of Intensive Care Medicine and Rehabilitology, Moscow, Russia
2. Regional Clinical Hospital, Orel, Russia
Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Specialized scales developed to assess survival and mortality of patients after liver transplantation have not been validated when applied to liver failure in the setting of obstructive jaundice. OBJECTIVE: To determine the prognostic value of multiparametric scoring scales and to identify predictors of unfavorable outcome in liver failure due to obstructive jaundice. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 53 patients with confirmed liver failure due to obstructive jaundice of benign etiology who underwent biliary decompression were included in this prospective, observational, single-center study. Depending on the outcome two groups were distinguished: with favorable (n = 27, 51 %) and with unfavorable outcome (n = 26, 49 %). The following time points were defined for the dynamic evaluation of the course of the disease: day 1, day 3, day 7, and day 11 after decompression. Statistical processing of the data was performed using IBM SPSS Statistics 22 software for social science data analysis. RESULTS: The sensitivity and specificity of the studied scales in predicting liver failure due to obstructive jaundice were calculated on the basis of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The AUROC for the SOFA was 0.862, for the MELD — 0.882, for the APACHE II — 0.864, for the Child-Turcotte-Pugh — 0.813. The sensitivity and specificity values for the SOFA were 78.9 and 77.8 %, for the MELD — 80.8 and 79.7 %, for the APACHE II — 57.7 and 81.9 %, and for the Child-Turcotte-Pugh — 75.1 and 70.9 %, respectively. Albumin was an independent predictor of unfavorable outcome (AUC ROC 0.909, p = 0.01), sensitivity 88.6 %, specificity 85.2 %. CONCLUSIONS: The scales presented in the study and the biomarker candidate “albumin” showed significant prognostic ability, but low values of sensitivity and specificity (less than 80 %) in some points of the study require the search for additional predictors of unfavorable outcome of liver failure due to obstructive jaundice.
Publisher
Practical Medicine Publishing House
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