GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AS A PREDICTOR OF THE BIRTH RATE IN UKRAINE

Abstract

The paper conducts an information-analytical study of correlations between the fertility rate in Ukraine and the level of the gross domestic product (hereinafter referred to as – GDP), expressed in US dollars, per person of the population. Preliminary calculations based on the official statistical data for 1990-2021 indicated the absence (R2 = 0.0089) of both linear and non-linear regression relationships between the studied indicators. However, a more detailed analysis of the correlation field made it possible to trace three time intervals with a fairly close linear relationship between the birth rate in Ukraine and the general state of the national economy. The combined regression model of the birth rate built as a result of such an analysis turned out to be adequate, and all its parameters were statistically significant at the confidence level of p = 0.95.At the same time, similar statistical estimates of the unknown parameters of the model were also obtained when investigating the presence of inertia in the reactions of the values of the endogenous variable, taking into account a lag delay of one year. The change in the specification of the model, as a result of the introduction to consideration of an additional indicator of the global financial crisis, led to an improvement in its correlation indicators and interpolation accuracy, both in the presence of a lag shift (R∆=1=0.960, MAPE∆=1 = 3.89%), and in its absence (R∆=0=0.982, MAPE∆=0 = 2.68%). According to estimates made on the basis of a combined fertility model, it was established that before the beginning of the military aggression of the russian federation in 2014, the birth rate in the country had a direct linear relationship with the level of GDP, expressed in US dollars, per person of the population. However, the regression coefficient observed during the economic crisis of 1990-1999 was significantly higher than the corresponding indicator calculated for the economic recovery period of 2000-2014. That is, the process of reducing the birth rate, which was provoked by the economic crisis, turned out to be more significant than the process of its recovery during the economic growth of the country. On the other hand, for the period of the military aggression of the russian federation, a feedback relationship between these indicators becomes characteristic, namely, a decrease in the birth rate is accompanied by an increase in the level of the country’s GDP.