Modeling the influence of basketball game parameters on the final result in Tokyo 2020

Abstract

This study aims to ascertain the significance of the basketball game parameters which discriminated between winning and losing teams in matches played. The study sample comprises matches played at the men’s basketball tournament at the XXXII Olympic Games in Tokyo. Four regression models were formed. Due to the size of the sample, the number of explaining variables was reduced using factor analysis, followed by stepwise regression to ascertain the statistical significance of the obtained models summarily, which were then broken down into individual parameters. This study indicates: (1) one of the four set regression models was summarily highly statistically significant; (2) out of the remaining models, two were eliminated due to the presence of multicollinearity, and one model did not exhibit high statistical significance; (3) the final score was most influenced by the variables of two- and three-point shot percentages, number of three-point shots, turnovers, defensive rebounds, and true shooting percentage. The results of the study corroborated the results of other studies which were carried out in recent years, that the game of basketball is trending towards three-point shots and lay-ups, reduction of turnovers when passing, and defensive rebounds have been confirmed to be greatly significant.