A New (Cold) Front in Polar Intelligence? Trends and Implications of Technology-Enabled Monitoring in the Arctic

Abstract

The Arctic has gained increasing attention from defense and intelligence policymakers concerned about great power conflict in the High North. United States-Russian competition in the region over polar shipping routes and natural resources seemingly contradicts institutional commitments to retain the Arctic as a “low tension zone.” Superpowers and their allies are receiving international condemnation for advancing kinetic military activity in the region while constituents and interest groups are instead advocating for diplomacy and cooperative restraint. As a result, Arctic nations are turning towards extensive reconnaissance and monitoring of the region to deter conflict. This study draws on strategy documents from each of the eight Arctic nations, scholarly research, and news coverage to assemble a picture of current efforts at technology-enabled monitoring. It also examines the potential of technologies such as long-range surveillance drones, satellites, and seabed monitors to facilitate near-constant reconnaissance by polar powers. The current deterrence mindset of Arctic security postures bears comparison with Cold War-era efforts to prevent outright conflict via monitoring and mitigation strategies. This study provides a historic account of Arctic intelligence in the 20th century and uses a comparative approach to assess what aspects of the contemporary situation are genuinely new and which may benefit from lessons of the Cold War. It concludes with policy recommendations for Arctic states to implement cohesive northern monitoring strategies into their intelligence organizations as well as long-term guidelines for new multilateral fora focused explicitly on Arctic security issues.