Effects of interregional migration: determinants, intersectoral links, and economic effects

Abstract

The article explores the determinants and economic effects of interregional migration in Russia. First, using econometric modeling based on gravity and spatial models we identify key factors influencing migration processes in the country, provide current estimates of internal migration determinants, and demonstrate the importance of spatial interconnections between them. Second, we consider several potential implementation options to stimulate migration in the Far East and Arctic regions along with quantitative assessments of the impact of model scenarios on incoming and outcoming migration flows for the regions under consideration. Third, to determine the socio-economic effects of the selected migration stimulation scenarios we analyze the impact of these measures on regional economies using extended input-output model industry multipliers. The findings indicate that expanding economic policy measures to stimulate migration could lead to positive economic effects, including increased gross value added, higher employment, and tax revenues for specific regions. Broadening the range of assessments of socio-economic effects to cover all regions of the country and considering all potential changes in migration flows between regions, including increased emigration from certain regions based on the spatial structure of internal interregional migration, we demonstrate that positive socio-economic effects are observed for the country as a whole. Specifically, in regions with challenging natural and climatic conditions, migration could be facilitated by promoting preferential housing acquisition, improving living standards through direct cash transfers, and infrastructure development.