Correctness of the computer model and our life

Abstract

Introduction. In the last decade, various software products have been created in Russia that claim to be a computer equivalent to the statutory document “Method of determining design values of fire risk in buildings, structures and constructions of different functional fire hazard classes”. In some of them, the complex of the programs completely substituting all sections of this document is given; others concern only modelling of time of evacuation of people and determining, on this basis, the probability of evacuation P ev which value, at not functioning systems of active fire protection (K = 0.8–0.9), shall be equal 0.999.Analysis of results of Determining estimated Time of evacuation in Software and Computing Systems. However, the reference data on which it is possible to check the accuracy of calculations of estimated time of evacuation t e is not given, and the majority of buyers of these systems do not have enough skills for this purpose. Software and computing system salesmen provide demo versions of software to customers, but refuse to disclose the source data on which they are based. They explain this “secrecy” by the fact that the software sold contains a certain KNOW-HOW which is their copyright. Therefore, the purchase and sale is, in fact, based only on the trust of the buyer to the seller. But the universal thing “Try before you trust” makes you look for what to check first and how to do it. What to check first is listed in the technical regulations “On fire safety requirements”: safety of evacuation, its promptness and unhindered access. The article is motivated by these criteria, examples of tragic consequences of their non-fulfillment are given.The authors then show how to perform such a test through the simplest examples. For this purpose, calculation of time of evacuation of a human flow at consecutive change of its density under Fogard Rv programs is made, Sigma PB, Urban; the calculation of the same situations using a simplified analytical model is made “Manually”. The deviations of tp values, obtained by computer programs from the values in the manual сomputation are calculated in percents. The evaluation of these deviations, given in the tables and on the graphs, shows that the developers of software and computing systems change in their calculations the domain area (model) used in the Methodology, i.e. distort the patterns of connection between the parameters of human flows established as a result of scientific discovery.Conclusions and proposals. As a result it is shown that results of the considered commercial software and computing systems considerably underestimate estimated time of evacuation of people, defining it below time of achievement of critical levels of influence by hazards of fire tbs , i.е. create the illusion of fulfilment of the condition: t e,i ≤ tbs . This allows the customer of this software product not to fulfill expensive requirements of fire safety of the facility. Thus, the owners of these software and computing systems mislead the citizens who are in buildings and structures regarding the safety of their health and life.