Improving the analysis of technical risk factors using the integrated FLDS model on the example of the construction of multi-storey residential buildings

Abstract

Introduction. This study is aimed at developing a model of the life cycle of a multi-storey residential building, taking into account the factors of technical risks. This model makes it possible to identify the main factors of technical risks at different stages of a project’s life and predict its behavior. After examining an extensive list of both domestic and foreign literature, it is clear that the systematization and classification of the elements of the life cycle of a construction object in conditions of technical risk factors is an urgent task in the construction industry. The purpose of the study is to develop the most effective mathematical model for determining and predicting the influence of technical risk factors on the life cycle of a multi-storey residential building. Materials and methods. The study is based not only on an extensive review of scientific literature, whose attention is focused on technical risks, but also analyzed the stages of the life cycle of buildings and structures, used the method of analogies and the method of diagrams, based on the theory of fuzzy set and the Dempster-Schafer theory, a mathematical model of FLDS is formed, so an expert survey was conducted with leading experts in the construction industry, on the basis of which the selection of the main factors of technical risks is formed. Results. The problem of analyzing technical risks in the construction industry plays a significant role, this is due to the construction of a significant number of modern structures that are unique in their kind, both from an architectural point of view, and from the point of view of the originality of design and technological solutions. Conclusions. Due to the uncertainty of experts’ opinions regarding the likelihood of occurrence and the degree of impact of risk factors, a demonstrative mathematical model of FLDS based on two theories is proposed, which allows numerically determining and distributing the influence of a risk factor by ranks. The result of the study shows that the application of the FLDS mathematical model will significantly increase the success of the project, allowing you to see the critical factors of technical risks at the initial stage of the life cycle of a construction project.