Recurrence of Cryptogenic (ESUS) Strokes in the First Year: Predictors and Outcome—A South Indian Study

Abstract

Introduction: Around 9–25% of ischemic strokes are embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) with an annual recurrence risk of 4.5–5%. Regarding ESUS, studies from India are limited. Here, we studied the prevalence of cryptogenic ESUS among stroke subtypes, recurrence risk and outcome at 1 year, and their predictors. Materials and Methods: We performed a single-center study of ambispective nature. Patients above 18 years of age with a diagnosis of cryptogenic (ESUS) strokes from January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2020 (4 years), with a 1-year follow-up were recruited in our study. All the patients underwent neuroimaging computerised tomography/magnetic resonance tomography (CT/MRI) with angiography, electrocardiogram (ECG), transthoracic echo (TTE), and rhythm monitoring. Functional outcome was measured using the modified Rankin scale with scores 0–2 taken as good outcome. Results: We had 234 (11.21% of total ischemic strokes) subjects satisfying the criteria for ESUS over the study period with a mean age of 58.2 ± 12.8 years. 46 patients had a history of stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA) at admission. 9.4% had a recurrent event at 1 year. The most important neuroimaging predictor of recurrent strokes was multiple embolic followed by superficial watershed pattern. Around 10% had more than one marker of atrial cardiopathy positive. While the risk factors, coronary artery disease (CAD), and neuroimaging pattern showed an association with recurrent events at 1 year on bivariate analysis, only the latter two remained significant on multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Our cohort of ESUS had a higher annual recurrence risk than reported before. Though vascular risk factors and ipsilateral vessel abnormalities were more in the recurrent ESUS group, it did not significantly affect the recurrence risk at 1 year. CAD and multiple embolic patterns on imaging showed an association with recurrent strokes, suggesting a possible cardiac substrate in our ESUS population as well.