Machine learning–aided algorithm design for prediction of severity from clinical, demographic, biochemical and immunological parameters: Our COVID-19 experience from the pandemic

Abstract

ABSTRACT Background: The severity of laboratory and imaging finding was found to be inconsistent with clinical symptoms in COVID-19 patients, thereby increasing casualties. As compared to conventional biomarkers, machine learning algorithms can learn nonlinear and complex interactions and thus improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed at evaluating role of biochemical and immunological parameters–based machine learning algorithms for severity indexing in COVID-19. Methods: Laboratory biochemical results of 5715 COVID-19 patients were mined from electronic records including 509 admitted in COVID-19 ICU. Random Forest Classifier (RFC), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Naive Bayesian Classifier (NBC) and K-Nearest Neighbours (KNN) classifier models were used. Lasso regression helped in identifying the most influential parameter. A decision tree was made for subdivided data set, based on randomization. Results: Accuracy of SVM was highest with 94.18% and RFC with 94.04%. SVM had highest PPV (1.00), and NBC had highest NPV (0.95). QUEST modelling ignored age, urea and total protein, and only C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase were considered to be a part of decision-tree algorithm. The overall percentage of correct classification was 78.31% in the overall algorithm with a sensitivity of 87.95% and an AUC of 0.747. Conclusion: C-reactive protein and lactate dehydrogenase being routinely performed tests in clinical laboratories in peripheral setups, this algorithm could be an effective predictive tool. SVM and RFC models showed significant accuracy in predicting COVID-19 severity and could be useful for future pandemics.