Predictability of varicocele repair success: preliminary results of a machine learning-based approach

Abstract

Varicocele is a prevalent condition in the infertile male population. However, to date, which patients may benefit most from varicocele repair is still a matter of debate. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether certain preintervention sperm parameters are predictive of successful varicocele repair, defined as an improvement in total motile sperm count (TMSC). We performed a retrospective study on 111 patients with varicocele who had undergone varicocele repair, collected from the Department of Endocrinology, Metabolic Diseases and Nutrition, University of Catania (Catania, Italy), and the Unit of Urology at the Selcuk University School of Medicine (Konya, Türkiye). The predictive analysis was conducted through the use of the Brain Project, an innovative tool that allows a complete and totally unbiased search of mathematical expressions that relate the object of study to the various parameters available. Varicocele repair was considered successful when TMSC increased by at least 50% of the preintervention value. For patients with preintervention TMSC below 5 × 106, improvement was considered clinically relevant when the increase exceeded 50% and the absolute TMSC value was >5 × 106. From the preintervention TMSC alone, we found a model that predicts patients who appear to benefit little from varicocele repair with a sensitivity of 50.0% and a specificity of 81.8%. Varicocele grade and serum follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) levels did not play a predictive role, but it should be noted that all patients enrolled in this study were selected with intermediate- or high-grade varicocele and normal FSH levels. In conclusion, preintervention TMSC is predictive of the success of varicocele repair in terms of TMSC improvement in patients with intermediate- or high-grade varicoceles and normal FSH levels.