Modelling Caspian sturgeon population dynamics: a new paradigm and new technology

Abstract

Abstract Currently, many problems beset sustainable management of Caspian sturgeon stocks, some outside the traditional theory of fishery management. Successfully solving such problems requires different models of population dynamics, reflecting the phenomenological properties of sturgeon stocks, the consequences of their overexploitation, and issues relating to environmental pressure on the ecosystem in which they live. Of the many analytical tools available to address the various questions, problem-orientated models are few. Their development demands a new approach, a new modelling paradigm, and new modelling tools that meet the modern ideas of ecosystem analysis and cognitive theory. This paper offers one such new paradigm and describes a knowledge-based modelling technique that may provide realization of this paradigm. A problem-orientated version of knowledge-based models is described, the applicability of such models in attempting to solve the practical issues of sturgeon fisheries management is reviewed, and an example of model implementation is given.