1. See: Pierre Wack: “Scenarios: uncharted waters ahead”, Harvard Business Review, September-October, 1985; “Scenarios: shooting the rapids”, Harvard Business Review, November-December, 1985. Subsequent papers on Shell's scenario process and a selective analysis of those who contributed include: P.W. Beck: “Corporate Planning for an Uncertain Future”, Shell UK Ltd., 1981 (reprinted in ‘Long Range Planning’, Vol. 15, No. 4, 1982, pps. 12–21). There had been brief reference to Shell's scenario work in René Zentner's paper: “Scenarios, Past, Present and Future” in the previous issue of ‘Long Range Planning’. Kees van der Heijden: “Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation”, John Wiley, 2005; Michael Jefferson: “Economic Uncertainty and Business Decision-Making” in Jack Wiseman (ed.): “Beyond Positive Economics?”, Macmillan, 1983; Art Kleiner: “The Age of Heretics”, Nicholas Brealey, 1996 (which provides a good summary of Shell's early scenario work); Gill Ringland: “Scenario Planning” (which covers, especially in Part III a later period in Shell's scenario planning than considered here); Peter Schwartz: “The Art of the Long View”, Doubleday, 1991 (which is cursory about Shell's scenario work in the 1970s, more expansive for the 1982–1987 period while working as Pierre Wack's successor in Shell when – as he revealingly puts it – “the co-ordinator of Group Planning was pursuing his own set of ideas about organizational learning”, p. 11). In response to a questionnaire sent to then current and former members of Shell's Group Planning Division, a 65-page report backed up by 24 pages of Appendices was issued in November, 1995: “Reflections on the Evolution of Scenario Planning in Shell 1971-1992”, which is valuable but not the final word on the subject. Other studies have also made claims about Shell's scenario work, not always accurately. Peter Cornelius, Alexander Van de Putte, and Mattia Romani: “Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell”, California Management Review, Vol. 48, No.1, Fall, 2005, has been discussed in the paper above. See also, for example, Allen Hammond's “Which World? Scenarios for the 21st Century”, Island Press, 1998, where it was claimed: “Scenarios also enabled Shell to anticipate the 1986 collapse of oil prices, gaining the company additional commercial advantages”, p. 14. The actual story is retold later in this paper, although an Oil Price Collapse case was examined within Shell's Group Planning from January, 1985. One of the few adversely critical papers written on Shell's scenario process, and worth reading, is: Alex Wright: “A Social constructionist's deconstruction of Royal Dutch Shell's scenario planning process”, Working Paper Series 2004, University of Wolverhampton Business School.
2. Royal Dutch Shell: “Company Strategies for Dealing with Environmental Issues”;Sluyterman;Harv. Bus. Hist. Rev.,2010
3. Michael Jefferson: “Economic Disturbances: Part I – The Background”, May 29, 1974; “Economic Disturbances: Part II – The Prospects”, June 5,1974.
4. “OPEC Oil Revenue under Varying Revenue Assumptions”;Jefferson,1974