Development of medium-term prediction methods: A case study of the August 14, 2016 Onor (M w = 5.8) earthquake on Sakhalin

Abstract

Abstract The potential of the load-unload response ratio (LURR) method for medium-term earthquake prediction is studied for Sakhalin Island as an example. An approach to the generation of predicted conditions and assessment of their implementation in real time is considered. The results of a retrospective analysis of other large Sakhalin earthquakes are used for generalization. It is shown that deviations of prediction parameters from specified values are satisfactory for this method. It is recommended that this method be used to compile summaries of medium-term predictions for Sakhalin provided that catalogs are filled as soon as possible.