Long-term prediction for seismic hazard for radioactive waste disposal

Abstract

Abstract We consider possible approaches to the long-term prediction for seismic hazard in relation to the practical need for the safety of geological disposal of long-lived radioactive waste. The required period of prediction significantly exceeds the one reflected in the set of maps of General Seismic Zoning of the territory of the Russian Federation (GSZ-97). The first geological repository in Russia is planned to be set up in the Nizhnii Kan granite massif in the Krasnoyarsk Krai. This region is an intraplate territory with a relatively high seismic activity. We summarize the analysis of the known empirical generalizations and theoretical principles underlying the seismic hazard prediction. Real seismic events constantly violate forward-looking statements even for relatively short periods of time. These and other arguments suggest that the hypothesis of stationarity of the seismic regime, which is the basis of long-term prediction today, has limited and uncertain applicability in time. Intraplate earthquake prediction is especially uncertain because of the uncertainty in the factor responsible for generating tectonic stresses in these regions. The short horizon of the prediction, based on statistical methods, can be attributed to the nonlinearity of seismic geodynamic processes. Fundamental laws of tectonic processes should be used as the scientific basis for long-term predictions for seismic hazard at the sites chosen for geological disposal of long-lived radioactive waste. These processes can be reflected in models for the migration of the seismically active boundaries of lithospheric plates and the occurrence of seismic activity in intraplate regions.