Is the East Antarctic ice sheet stable?

Abstract

AbstractThe Greenland and East and West Antarctic ice sheets are assessed as being the source of ice that produced an Eemian sea level 6 m higher than present sea level. The most probable source is total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accompanied by partial collapse of the adjacent sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet in direct contact with the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. This conclusion is reached by applying a simple formula relating the “floating fraction” of ice along flowlines to ice height above the bed. Increasing the floating fraction lowered ice elevations enough to contribute up to 4.7 m to global sea level. Adding 3.3 m resulting from total collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet accounts for the higher Eemian sea level. Partial gravitational collapse that produced the present ice drainage system of Amery Ice Shelf contributes 2.3 m to global sea level. These results cast doubt on the presumed stability of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, but destabilizing mechanisms remain largely unknown. Possibilities include glacial surges and marine instabilities at the respective head and foot of ice streams.