1. This paper is a revised version of a keynote address to the annual conference of the Operational Research Society, University of Warwick, September, 1996.
2. Management System Dynamics;Coyle,1977
3. Forecasting Technology for Planning Decisions;Jones,1978
4. United Kingdom Technology Foresight Programme Delphi Survey;Loveridge,1995
5. The Rise and Fall of Great Powers;Kennedy,1987