Epidemiology, clinical characteristics and risk factors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Casablanca

Abstract

This is an analytical cross-sectional study of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) based on data collected between 1 November 2020 and 31 March 2021 in Casablanca focusing on the disease’s epidemiological status and risk factors. A total of 4569 samples were collected and analysed by reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR); 967 patients were positive, representing a prevalence of 21.2 % for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The mean age was 47.5±18 years, and infection was more common in young adults (<60 years). However, all age groups were at risk of COVID-19, and in terms of disease severity, the elderly were at greater risk because of potential underlying health problems. Among the clinical signs reported in this study, loss of taste and/or smell, fever, cough and fatigue were highly significant predictors of a positive COVID-19 test result (P<0.001). An assessment of the reported symptoms revealed that 27 % of COVID-19-positive patients (n=261) experienced loss of taste and/or smell, whereas only 2 % (n=72) of COVID-19-negative patients did (P<0.001). This result was consistent between univariate (OR=18.125) and multivariate (adjusted OR=10.484) logistic regression analyses, indicating that loss of taste and/or smell is associated with a more than 10-fold higher multivariate adjusted probability of a positive COVID-19 test (adjusted OR=10.48; P<0.001). Binary logistic regression model analysis based on clinical signs revealed that loss of taste and/or smell had a performance index of 0.846 with a P<0.001, confirming the diagnostic utility of this symptom for the prediction of COVID-19-positive status. In conclusion, symptom evaluation and a RT-PCR [taking into account cycle threshold (C t) values of the PCR proxy] test remain the most useful screening tools for diagnosing COVID-19. However, loss of taste/smell, fatigue, fever and cough remain the strongest independent predictors of a positive COVID-19 result.