A comparative analysis of the second and third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic: an experience from a tertiary care hospital in Western India

Abstract

Introduction. As the world was still recovering from the 2020 pandemic, the devastating impact of Covid-19 driven by the Delta variant shook the world in 2021. As the second wave was declining, there was an unusual surge in Covid-19 positive cases by the end of 2021 which led to global concern about the change in virus characteristics. Hypothesis/gap statement. Whole genome sequencing is critical for understanding a rapidly progressing pandemic. Aim. To provide an insight into the major differences encountered in the changing characteristics between the second and third waves of the pandemic at a tertiary care hospital in India. Methods. A retrospective observational cohort analysis was conducted on Covid-positive patients during the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic (from March 2021 to April 2021) and the third wave of the Covid-19 pandemic (from December 2021 to January 2022). Results. Out of 303 Covid-19 positive cases, 52 samples were tested by whole genome sequencing during the second wave and 108 during the third wave. A decline of 18.5 % was observed in the case fatality rate from the second wave to the third wave. There was a 5 % decline in the number of patients admitted with ARDS and a 16.3 % decline in the number of patients with co-morbidities. In total, 51.9 percent of cases were due to the Delta variant during the second wave and 95 percent due to the Omicron variant during the third wave. We found that 36.5 % of Covid-positive patients during the second wave had been vaccinated compared to 40 % in the third wave. Conclusion. Whole genome sequencing of clinical samples from a wide range of individuals during a viral epidemic will enable us to develop a more rapid public health response to new variants and identify the required vaccine modifications more quickly.