Approach to population estimation in Ukraine using mobile operators’ data

Abstract

Estimating the size and places of residence of the population of Ukraine has been this country’s problem for the past decade, and is related to the lack of census data for the 2010 round, large-scale processes of external and internal labour migration, and Russia's armed aggression against Ukraine that started in 2014. This already disadvantageous situation has been significantly exacerbated by Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine which began on 24th February 2022. Conducting statistical surveys, especially surveys regarding the population, turned out to impossible under war circumstances. Therefore, the task of developing effective approaches to estimating the population size using data from existing sources, in particular the data of mobile operators regarding the number, location and mobility of subscribers, has become even more pressing. The article highlights the results of a study on the use of data from mobile operators, data from administrative registers, and the results of a special population sample survey on the use of mobile communication for the purpose of estimating the population. It also provides the results of experimental calculations of the population size in Ukraine as a whole and in particular regions. The study moreover showed that the size of Ukraine’s population in November 2019, unlike the official estimate of 41,940.7 thousand people, was probably about 37,289.4 thousand people. The developed approaches can be used to estimate the number and location of the population of Ukraine during the intercensal period or significant population movements due to environmental disasters or military conflicts.