Regime Switch and Effect on Per Capita Food Security Issues in South Africa

Abstract

This paper examines whether the food security situation in South Africa is sensitive to the past and present governance systems. The study was aimed at reviewing the performance of key indicators: per capita land utilization, price index and consumption of a major staple food commodity (maize) in the pre- and post-apartheid periods. It also aimed at validating the application of population growth and food advocacy theories on South African food security. Time series analysis involving variables such as per capital land cultivation, consumption/tons and price/tons of maize within the period of 1970 to 2010 was conducted. Threshold autoregressive model (TAR) approach was used to capture per capita food security status of South Africans and to monitor trends under apartheid and post-apartheid eras. We found that there is a declining trend in per capita land cultivation and mixed results of per capita consumption of maize. The study revealed that population growth in South Africa has not been harnessed and there is possibility of worsening food security in the country. The long-run effect between the variables was established. The study recommends per capita targeting policy strategies for the improvement of staple food production and dietary balancing to ensure sustainable food security.