The Impact of Lake-Level Fluctuation on Earthquake Recurrence Interval over Historical and Prehistorical Timescales: The Case of the Dead Sea

Abstract

We review the impact of large historical lake water-level changes on seismicity via the stress field of the shallow crust where devastating earthquakes nucleate. A novel backward earthquake simulation presented in this chapter can be used to investigate the geological record for the past ten millennia (presented in this study) and even more. The simulation is based on a theoretical model, which explains the variability in the recurrence interval of strong earthquakes. We suggest that the water-level changes in ancient lakes located in tectonic depressions along the Dead Sea transform could contribute to the observed differences. It is found that the increase in the water level moderates the seismic recurrence interval. Based on this empirical correlation together with mechanical considerations, an additional indication is established regarding the water-level reconstruction and location of earthquakes in the Dead Sea area. This indication is based on simulated earthquakes, by superimposing the effective normal stress change due to the reconstructed water-level change on the estimated tectonic shear stress accumulated since the preceding seismic event.