Risk Assessment of Civil Aircraft during Operation

Abstract

In this chapter, the risk assessment methods for aircraft system, structure, and aeroengine are investigated. For the aircraft system risk assessment, the probability level is divided into probable, improbable, and extremely improbable, and the hazard level of the failure condition is divided into minor, major, and catastrophic. Using Weibull analysis and Bayesian method to analyze the aircraft operation data, the risk level of aircraft system can be determined by combing methods provided in AC 25.1309-1A. For the aircraft structure risk assessment, the probability fracture mechanics approach can be used to determine the structure failure risk based on the data of material properties, environment, inspection, and so on. For the aeroengine risk assessment, the methods for classification of failure risk level, determination of hazard ratio, and calculation of the risk factor and risk per flight are given. The risk assessment process for aeroengine multi-failure modes based on the Monte Carlo simulation is presented to predict the occurrence of the failure and assess the failure risk.