Small Area Estimation for Demographic Analysis

Abstract

In this chapter we will introduce recent developments in the application of small area estimation (SAE) such as combining new statistical methods such as multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) and neighborhood spatial smoothing models (e.g. a modified Besag-York-Mollié, or BYM2), and consider recent applications for demographic processes such as mortality or migration estimation at local levels. We will discuss recent methodological developments and important applications of SAE such as the United Nations COVID-19 national and subnational mortality estimates. Last, we will provide a clear example of SAE using United States ZIP code-level data for core demographic questions relating to mortality and migration.