Tectonics and Seismicity in the periAdriatic Zones: Implications for Seismic Hazard in Italy

Abstract

The recognition of the seismic zones most prone to next major earthquakes in Italy would considerably help the choice of the most efficient prevention plan. This work describes an attempt to gain reliable information about that problem by exploiting the knowledge about the short-term development of the ongoing tectonic processes in the study area and its influence on the spatio-temporal distribution of major shocks. In the periAdriatic zones, such distribution is connected with the progressive northward displacement of the Adria plate, that is controlled by the progressive activation of the decoupling fault systems in the surrounding belts (Dinarides, Apennines and Eastern Southern Alps). The reliability of this hypothesis is evaluated by analysing the seismic histories of the periAdriatic zones. The regularity patterns that are tentatively recognised in such histories are used to identify the most probable location of next major shocks. Further insights into the present seismic hazard in the Southern Apennines and Calabria are tentatively inferred from tectonic connections between these regions and other periAdriatic zones, suggested by the seismic histories in the last 2–4 centuries and the geodynamic/tectonic context in the central Mediterranean area.