Investigation of the Dynamics of the Seismic Regime in the Kamchatka Region Based on the Combination of Methods of Nonequilibrium Thermodynamics and the Axiomatic Method of Kolmogorov A.N.

Abstract

In the presented chapter, the preparation of an earthquake on the example of the Kronotsky event that occurred on 1997-12-05 with a magnitude Mc = 7.7 is considered from the standpoint of nonequilibrium thermodynamics, in which the evolution of systems is due to self-organization processes. With this approach, the lithosphere is an open nonlinear system in which, due to internal dissipation and the coordinated interaction of its elements, a self-organization process can occur, leading the system to a critical state. In this case, the scales of the connection between different parts of the nonlinear structure change, that is, the scales of temporal and spatial correlation change. However, the methods of seismological monitoring of the stress-strain geoenvironment can be expanded if, for its study, the method of calculating the probability distribution of earthquakes for various random events is used, based on the axiomatic approach of Kolmogorov A.N., applied to the catalog of Kamchatka earthquakes. This makes it possible to follow the dynamics of correlated spatial and temporal changes in the probability distribution of random variables for weak earthquakes preceding a strong event using probabilistic methods.